Reserves and Forecasting · Module R2
Production Data You Can Forecast From
Most forecasting errors start in the data, not in the decline equation. This module covers where monthly volumes come from, the quality-control flags to raise before fitting, the diagnostic plots that reveal flow regime, and how to pick and document the window a decline is fitted to.
- Level
- Intermediate
- Position
- Module 2 of 8
- Video
- About 17 minutes, narrated
- Format
- Narrated video lesson with captions and slide reading view; with the certified option, a quiz whose pass unlocks the next module.
What the module covers
- Measured, allocated and tested production
- Calendar-day versus producing-day rates
- Shut-ins, ramp-up, plateaus and operational resets
- Semilog, rate-cumulative and log-log diagnostics
- Choosing and documenting the fit window
Learning outcomes
After the module you should be able to:
- Prepare a QC'd, documented production history and a justified fit window.
- Clean a monthly history before any curve is fitted
- Recognise transient flow on a log-log plot
- Write an exclusion log a reviewer can reproduce
A short preview
A month with downtime can look like a sudden loss of deliverability. If a well makes 9,300 barrels in a 31-day month but only flowed for 20 days, its calendar-day rate is 300 barrels a day while its producing-day rate is 465. Fitting a decline to the calendar-day value treats ordinary downtime as reservoir behaviour, and on a smooth hyperbolic history a single such point can shift the fitted shape enough to change the forecast tail by double-digit percentages.
Who it is for
Reservoir and production engineers, petrophysicists and geoscientists who estimate, review or report reserves and production forecasts.
Prerequisites: None required; working familiarity with production data and volumetrics helps.
Take the module in the Learning Hub
Reserves and Forecasting: Specialty course, sold separately: eight modules from PRMS classification and decline curves to type wells, material balance, aggregation and the reserves report. The lesson opens in the Learning Hub once the track is purchased; graded quizzes and the certificate come with the certified option.