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Reservoir Risk & Decision Insights

Practical notes for petroleum engineers and geoscientists working on reservoir uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation, and economics scenario planning.

2026-10-04

Choosing a Water Saturation Model for Shaly Sands: Archie, Simandoux, Indonesia, Waxman–Smits and Dual Water

Five saturation models run on the same shaly sand, with every step of the arithmetic shown: why they disagree, why hydrocarbon pore volume is the fair comparison, and a wet-sand check that tells you which set of parameters is consistent with your rock.

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2026-10-04

P90, P50 and P10 in Volumetrics and Economics: Why the Conventions Differ and How Not to Mix Them

The same label means the low case in a reserves report and the high case in a spreadsheet. A worked example on the two conventions, the gap between the P50 and the mean, and the arithmetic that goes wrong when percentiles are multiplied or added.

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2026-10-04

Pressure Gradients and Fluid Contacts From Formation Tests: A Worked Example

How formation pressure tests identify fluids and locate the free water level, worked through with numbers you can check by hand, and how far the answer moves with a small pressure error, a small gradient error or a deviated well.

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2026-10-04

Shale Volume From the Gamma Ray: Linear, Larionov, Clavier and Steiber, With a Worked Example

The gamma-ray index is a ratio, not a shale volume. A worked example of the linear, Larionov, Clavier and Steiber transforms on the same reading, what the choice does to effective porosity and net pay, and the rocks in which the gamma ray should not be trusted.

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2026-09-23

TOC From Well Logs: Passey Delta-Log-R, Schmoker Density, and Why the Order of Operations Matters

How total organic carbon is read from resistivity, sonic and density logs, why kerogen has to come out of the porosity before saturation is computed, and how adsorbed gas gets booked without double counting.

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2026-08-23

Building a 1D Mechanical Earth Model From Well Logs: Pore Pressure, Stresses, and the Mud Weight Window

A practical walkthrough of how sonic and density logs become a calibrated geomechanics model: elastic properties, pore pressure, rock strength, in-situ stresses, and a defensible safe mud weight window.

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2026-05-17

Integrating Monte Carlo Simulation with Economics: A Better Way to Plan Reserves

Reservoir teams improve planning confidence when Monte Carlo uncertainty results are directly tied to economics scenario planning.

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2026-05-17

Why Spreadsheet Handoffs Kill Reservoir Decision Quality

Manual spreadsheet handoffs quietly erode traceability, delay reviews, and reduce decision quality in oil and gas teams.

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