Prospect Risk Assessment: COS, Decision Tree EMV & Risk Factor Tornado
Quantify geological chance of success as a five-factor product, risk EUR and NPV, run a decision tree EMV with DRILL/NO-DRILL calls, and find the risk factor that drives COS with a tornado diagram.
TAGLINE
Quantify geological chance of success as a five-factor product, risk EUR and NPV, run a decision tree EMV with DRILL/NO-DRILL calls, and find the risk factor that drives COS with a tornado diagram.
WHO IT'S FOR
Exploration geoscientists, reservoir engineers, and A&D professionals who need to evaluate prospect risk, calculate Expected Monetary Value, rank a portfolio, and communicate risk to management.
WHAT IT DOES
Calculates Chance of Success (COS) for up to 5 prospects as the product of five independent factors (trap, reservoir, source, seal, timing), and risks EUR and NPV with it. Takes P90 (low), P50 and P10 (high) EUR per prospect and gives a Swanson mean and a risked mean. Flags each prospect DRILL/REVIEW/PASS against drill and review COS thresholds you set. Runs a decision tree EMV (EMV = COS × NPV_success − (1 − COS) × dry-hole cost) with a DRILL/NO-DRILL call from the sign of EMV, ranks the prospects, and sums portfolio EMV over the DRILL prospects. A separate 7-factor base case drives a tornado diagram showing which factor moves COS most.
TABS INCLUDED (9)
• Instructions • Prospect Inputs — five risk factors, P90/P50/P10 EUR, unrisked NPV per prospect; drill and review COS thresholds • COS Calculation — COS %, risked EUR, risked NPV, Swanson mean and risked mean EUR, decision flag (DRILL/REVIEW/PASS) • Risk Matrix — EUR vs COS quadrant map, portfolio weight per prospect • Portfolio Summary — threshold counts, total risked EUR and NPV, average COS, live narrative • Portfolio Risked NPV — prospects sorted by risked NPV, share and cumulative, chart • Sensitivity Analysis — relative COS change for a ±0.10 change in each factor, per prospect • Decision Tree EMV — EMV per prospect, DRILL/NO-DRILL, rank, portfolio EMV of DRILL prospects • Risk Factor Tornado — standalone 7-factor base case; COS low/base/high per factor; sorted tornado chart
KEY FEATURES
• COS = P(trap) × P(reservoir) × P(source) × P(seal) × P(timing) • Decision tree: EMV = COS × NPV_success − (1 − COS) × dry-hole cost; DRILL if EMV > 0 • Portfolio EMV: sum of EMV over DRILL prospects; prospects ranked by EMV • EUR range: P90 = low, P10 = high; Swanson mean = 0.3 P90 + 0.4 P50 + 0.3 P10; risked mean = COS × mean • Tornado: each factor ± an adjustable swing (default 0.10); swing = COS_high − COS_low; sorted largest to smallest • COS thresholds: drill (default 35%) and review (default 20%) are inputs
TECHNICAL SPECS
• Excel 2016+ compatible • 340+ formulas across 9 tabs • 5-prospect sample dataset (Alpha through Epsilon, various COS and EUR) • MDT color scheme
ABOUT RESERVOIR RISK SOLUTIONS
Built by petroleum engineers for petroleum engineers. All workbooks require only Microsoft Excel (2016+) — no plugins, no subscriptions. www.reservoir-risk-solutions.com
What you get
- Instant workbook access after payment in your Excel Library
- Formula-driven worksheet designed for petroleum workflows
- No recurring fees and no plugin requirements
Licence
Single-user licence: the purchaser may use and modify this workbook for their own work, including work for their employer and clients. It may not be resold, shared publicly or redistributed as a template. Results are engineering estimates for screening and must be checked by a qualified professional before they are relied on.
FAQ
Is this a one-time purchase?
Yes. Each workbook is sold as a one-time purchase with no recurring subscription.
How do I access purchased files?
After checkout, your file appears in Excel Library under your account for download.
Do these templates require macros or plugins?
No. Templates are designed for Excel 2016+ and do not require VBA macros or external add-ins.
