Decline Curve Analysis: Arps DCA, EUR Sensitivity, P10/P50/P90 & Rate-Cumulative Diagnostic
All four Arps methods with a terminal-decline switch, a rate-cumulative plot, Monte Carlo P90/P50/P10 EUR, and a live EUR sensitivity matrix.
TAGLINE
All four Arps methods with a terminal-decline switch, a rate-cumulative plot, Monte Carlo P90/P50/P10 EUR, and a live EUR sensitivity matrix.
WHO IT'S FOR
Reservoir engineers, production engineers, and A&D analysts who need to match production decline, calculate EUR, generate 30-year forecasts, and quantify reserves uncertainty.
WHAT IT DOES
Implements all four Arps decline methods simultaneously (exponential, hyperbolic, harmonic, modified hyperbolic with Dterm), matches to monthly production history, generates a 30-year annual forecast, plots the Fetkovich rate-vs-cumulative diagnostic, truncates at the economic limit, and produces probabilistic EUR ranges (P90 low / P50 / P10 high) from a 500-trial Monte Carlo on qi, Di and b, with a b-factor interpretation guide.
TABS INCLUDED (9)
• Instructions • DCA Assumptions — qi, Di, b, Dterm, economic limit, GOR, forecast period • Production History — 24-month actual rate data entry • Arps DCA — all 4 decline curves vs actual; log-scale rate-time chart • 30-Year Forecast — annual oil/gas/cumulative table • Rate vs Cumulative — rate against cumulative production (semi-log) • EUR Sensitivity — annual decline rate × b-exponent matrix (5 × 6), computed live • P90 / P50 / P10 EUR — low / base / high case EUR (P90 = low case, PRMS convention) with b-factor interpretation guide • Decline Rate Reference — nominal vs effective Di conversion table; half-life by rate
KEY FEATURES
• Modified hyperbolic: transitions from hyperbolic to exponential at Dterm (SPE best practice) • P90/P50/P10: 500-trial Monte Carlo over qi 1,200–2,800 BOPD, Di 35–55%/yr, b 0.6–1.0 • EUR sensitivity heat map: 5 × 6 matrix with a live colour scale • Decline rate table: 12 Di values (10–80%/yr), nominal → effective → monthly conversion
TECHNICAL SPECS
• Excel 2016+ compatible • 9,000+ formulas across 9 tabs (most in the live Monte Carlo) • 24-month production dataset (qi=1,850 BOPD, Di=45%/yr, b=0.80) • MDT professional color scheme
ABOUT RESERVOIR RISK SOLUTIONS
Built by petroleum engineers for petroleum engineers. All workbooks require only Microsoft Excel (2016+) — no plugins, no subscriptions. www.reservoir-risk-solutions.com
What you get
- Instant workbook access after payment in your Excel Library
- Formula-driven worksheet designed for petroleum workflows
- No recurring fees and no plugin requirements
Licence
Single-user licence: the purchaser may use and modify this workbook for their own work, including work for their employer and clients. It may not be resold, shared publicly or redistributed as a template. Results are engineering estimates for screening and must be checked by a qualified professional before they are relied on.
FAQ
Is this a one-time purchase?
Yes. Each workbook is sold as a one-time purchase with no recurring subscription.
How do I access purchased files?
After checkout, your file appears in Excel Library under your account for download.
Do these templates require macros or plugins?
No. Templates are designed for Excel 2016+ and do not require VBA macros or external add-ins.
